Legal Law

Simple horse racing points system for horse betting and handicap horse racing

The following is a very simple approach, but I present it here to show how important it is to use a methodical approach, a system, if you will, to betting on handicap horses and horse races. Many people spend hours poring over a racing program or playing with complicated software to find the winner of the race or races they intend to play. The challenge of finding a winner in this intellectual handicap sport can be fun and entertaining, but let me let you in on a little secret. While it’s important to have fun while playing the races, it’s just as important to make a profit or at least break even so you can afford to keep playing the races.

So, with the winning angle in mind, and it should always be somewhere on your mind, even if it’s tucked away in the back while you’re busy having fun, let’s look at a slightly different way to find the winner. This is how you find the true winner of the race. Shortly after the race ends, notice the small line of people redeeming tickets for the race. The winner is somewhere on the line. Do you realize I didn’t say that all the people who were collecting tickets were winners? You want to know why? If you’re a professional handicapper or punter, you know why, right?

The reason why all the people who collect tickets are not winners is because some of them spent too much on their bets or did not manage their money wisely. Now please read this carefully and think about what I am writing. The winner is the one who makes a profit on his bet by finding profitable bets. Most professional handicappers don’t look for winners, they look for good bets and it makes a world of difference. While many people are good at picking winners, the pros are good at picking winners that pay out enough to make them profitable bets in the long run. In other words, professional tipsters are good at betting on horses and forecasting horse races.

The purpose of the following exercise, the horse racing system, is to get you thinking in terms of the odds and the merits of each horse in the race. Test it out on paper a few times and have fun with it. This is not meant to be a great source of money, but just a way to start the “money disability” process. I advise you to use it on breeds with older horses with many starts, single breeds should be avoided for this exercise.

Before we go any further, let’s subtract 20%, the average track consumption, or vig, from 100 to end up with 80.

Let’s start with the size of the field. Divide 80 by the size of the field to determine how much each factor will be worth. For example, if there are 8 horses in the race, 80 divided by 8 equals 10. Now convert your answer to percentages so that 10 equals 10%. Each factor is now worth 10%. We’ll call it a “unit.”

Now let’s list the factors…

1. Class

Determine the class of horse in the breed by one of the following two methods,

A. If the horse has had at least 5 races per year, then divide the horse’s total earnings by the number of races it has run.

b. If the horse has not had five races in the current year, divide its total earnings by the total number of races.

The horse with the highest average earnings per start is the class horse.

2. Consistency

Determine the consistency by dividing the total number of starts by the number of wins.

3 rider

Determine the best jockey by his winning percentage

4. Coach

Determine the best trainer by his winning percentage

5. Speed

If speed ratings are available, the highest speed rating within the last 60 days is best or, if no speed ratings are available, the fastest time over distance and surface (6f on ground, etc.)

6. last speed

Highest speed ranking or fastest time in the last race.

Now review your list of brokers and after determining the above factors for each broker, assign the percentages as follows…

1. each factor is worth one unit so the horse with the highest class wins 10%. The same is true for each of the other factors. So it is possible for a horse that has all of the above factors to earn 80%, but it is very rare for a horse to qualify for all of the factors.

Now let’s talk about money and fair bets. Once you have assigned a percentage to each horse, you will see that some have a higher percentage than others. It’s time to turn those percentages into fair bets or odds.

Odds are determined by converting the percentage to a fraction and then comparing it to the table below. A horse with 50% for example (which many people would consider safe) would be 1/2. That means the horse would be expected to win half the time. So looking at the table we see that a bet that would pay more than $4.00 (for every $2 wagered on the horse) would be a profitable bet.

Percentage Fair Odds

80% 2-5

70% 3-5

60% 4-5

50% 1-1

40% 8-5

30% 2-1

20% 4-1

10% 9-1

A horse that had 30% would be about 1/3.33 (rounded to the nearest whole number so that 3.33 becomes 3), which means it would win about a third of the time. Looking at the table, we see that a horse that can win a third of the time (30%) is worth betting on if he pays more than $6 for every $2 wagered.

The next step is to look at the odds and when there are two minutes or less left on the clock, place a bet on a horse only if it shows that it will show a profit if it wins.

Now here is a tip for betting on horses. Most professionals will not accept a low price for a horse, no matter how good it looks. I personally recommend that you never bet on any horse that is less than 2-1. Long experience has shown me that it simply isn’t profitable despite what the numbers on paper show. As we all know, just because something looks good on paper doesn’t necessarily mean it will work in real life.

Try this little system for fun and then use the same approach with a more accurate system for handicap horse racing and you’ll soon be a real winner.

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