College Basketball: Sagarin Ratings Provide Stats To Identify Top 25 Overrated Teams
The most recent weekly college basketball AP Top 25 poll (1-18-08) and the most recent Sagarin ratings (1-17-08) provide some clues as to which teams are probably overrated.
Sagarin’s ratings give you a bird’s-eye view of identifying teams that have played against a bunch of weak sisters to build an impressive win-loss record early in the season and now must face the music of playing in the competition of the league.
You can learn a lot by looking at the strength of the schedule of the top-rated teams. My method is to divide the total 341 Division 1 teams into 5 categories (literally, 340 divided by 5 equals 68). This creates a top 20% (1-68), 2nd tier (69-136), 3rd tier (137-204), 4th tier (205-272), and the bottom 20% (273-340 ).
The Top 20% is top-tier competition. I think of the next 3 levels as a 2nd string, 3rd string, and 4th string competition. 20% of the bottom I consider bottom dwellers who feed on the crumbs that fall from the upper levels.
Here are 4 teams in the AP Top 25 poll that are probably overrated and will prove it in the near future: No. 25 Villanova, No. 16 Vanderbilt, No. 10 Texas A&M and No. 21 Miami (FL). These 4 are given a much higher ranking in the AP Poll than Sagarin in their ratings.
The most exaggerated example is Villanova, who is ranked 25th and ranked 57th by Sagarin. Villanova has an impressive 12-3 record, but his schedule strength (SOS) is 240. In other words, Villanova earned his record by playing in 4th level (or 4th string) competition.
Vanderbilt is ranked 16th by AP and 36th by Sagarin. Vandy has a 12-3 record, but his SOS is 164 because he played in 3rd string competition.
Texas A&M is ranked 10th by the AP and 24th by Sagarin. A&M is 14-2 but his SOS is 290 due to playing in the bottom 20% of the competition. Texas A&M, true to my prediction, just got beaten by none other than Bob Knight and his Texas Tech Red Raiders, 68-53. The win was Knight’s 900. Knight is No. 1 on the NCAA Division 1 career wins list.
Texas Tech is ranked 80th by Sagarin with a 9-6 record, but his SOS is 104 due to playing in second-tier (second string) competition. The Red Raiders clearly played much better competition going into the Texas A&M Aggies and it showed.
Miami (FL) is ranked 21st by AP and 33rd by Sagarin. Miami is 13-2 but his SOS is 281 for playing in the bottom 20% of the competition. You get the picture.
Here’s another prominent example from the Pac-10 Conference. Oregon is not ranked in the AP Top 25, but Sagarin ranks him 31st with a 12-5 record and his SOS is 24 due to him playing in top-tier competition.
Washington is not ranked in the Top 25, but Sagarin ranks him 65th with a 10-7 record and his SOS is 50 due to playing top-tier competition. Washington just beat Oregon 78-70 at home. Keep in mind that both teams are ranked in the top 20% of teams and are used to playing top-tier competition.
This is what won’t work 99% of the time. North Carolina A&T is ranked 268th by Sagarin with a 2-9 record and an amazing SOS of 2. They’ve played the second toughest schedule in the country so far this season, but they won’t be upsetting anyone anytime soon because they’re also they are classified. low to begin with, only 5 places away from being in the bottom 20% nationally.
Copyright © 2008 Ed Bagley