The truth about MLB progressive betting and Chase MLB betting systems
If you’ve been betting on sports for any length of time, you know that losing streaks are part of the big picture. It doesn’t matter who you are or how good a handicap you are, losing streaks are going to happen. It also doesn’t matter how you are at a disadvantage. Bettors who rely on stats, trends, or systems are not exempt from the inevitable downfall, which makes following some of baseball’s chasing systems a dangerous task.
A chase system looks a lot like the old Martingale betting strategy of simply doubling after a loss, with the expectation of recovering any previous losses and showing a profit when you win. If you were guaranteed a winning bet in three plays, the chase system would work fine, but there are no sure things in sports betting.
Just as streaks are part of baseball betting, they are also part of baseball and it is not uncommon to see teams win or lose six, seven or even eight games in a row.
When someone is promoting a baseball chase system, they will be attracted by an impressive record, but the records that are given are not the actual record of wins and losses of the games wagered, rather they are the record of the chase sequence.
For example, if a chasing system says to bet on the New York Mets, the Mets could lose their next six games. If he wins the seventh game, a bettor following the sequence would show a 1-6 record in the seven games they bet. But the system would be credited with a 1-0 record on the premise that the sequence was successful.
If that’s not bad enough, almost all chase systems will have you play the favorite on the money line or take the race line if the team is a loser. Either way, you will be risking much more money than you can win. If you catch a +120 loser on the run line, you can expect to risk close to -175 to get the 1.5 runs.
Using -160 for a money line favorite or run line loser, suppose a bettor wants to show a chase sequence win of $ 100. The first bet will obviously be $ 160 to win $ 100. Yes the bettor wins the first bet, a new sequence will begin. It is when the bettor loses the first bet that things start to get a bit complicated. With the loss, the bettor has now lost $ 160 and needs to win $ 260 on his next bet to recover the lost money and still show his desired win of $ 100.
To win $ 260 on a -160 bet, you will have to bet $ 416. If the second bet wins, the bettor can close the sequence with a profit of $ 100, but if the second game loses, the bettor now has $ 576 down. and you will need to win $ 676 to show a profit for the sequence. That leads to a third bet of $ 1,082 and if the third bet loses, the bettor has lost $ 1,658 and will have to bet $ 2,813 to show a sequence win of $ 100 on the fourth bet. If it is a fifth bet, the amount required to bet would be $ 4,471, which could very well exceed a bettor’s betting limit or, most likely, a bettor’s bankroll. A win in the fifth game would be good for a sequence win of $ 100, but a loss will produce a sequence loss of $ 7,284.
Losing five bets in a row is not that unusual. Happens. But when it happens with a chase system, it can quickly get awfully expensive and will knock all the best-funded sports bettors off the scene.
Consider these numbers before investing in a handicapper who claims to be 44-1 or went 22-0 last season. Losses happen, it is a reality of the game.