The best way to pick winning horses and find overlaps
The only way to make a profit betting on horses is to find an occasional runner who is undervalued by other bettors. It’s not easy and it doesn’t happen often. While they, the other people who bet on the races, that is, may let one go a little higher on the odds than it should be, the vigorous, the amount put out by the track, will pick up the slack and still won. It will not be a profitable bet.
The only way to beat crowd skill and track elimination is to find the best way to pick winners that works for you. There is no best way, but they all amount to the same thing. You have to learn how to do a morning line and then keep an eye out for horses that have higher odds than you think they should and bet on them.
That’s how sports books and racing books do it. They have professionals who can accurately judge each broker’s chances of winning and set slightly lower odds for them to make a profit. For example, if they think a horse has a one in four chance of winning, they will give it a 5-2 odds. That means, if they’re right, you can’t even break even with the horse. In other words, they will always win.
The betting public does more or less the same thing, although it can be influenced by public handicappers promoting a certain horse in a race. That’s good news for you. One of the best ways to find an overlap when you’re picking winners is to read the horse racing news and find a horse that is being hyped by public handicapper writers and specialists. Take a closer look at the breed and see if they have done well.
All the pressure the horse gets will lower the odds and you may be able to find another runner in the race that is an overlap. This usually happens in the big races if he is going to pass. The problem, of course, is that astute punters often look at these races for that very reason. Races like the Kentucky Derby, for example, offer good opportunities to find overlaps and the pools are so large that big players can bet big without changing the odds much.
That’s why they play those races more and wait for those opportunities. When I see a promoted horse in one of those races, I usually look for another runner in the race who can beat him and watch the odds closely. With two minutes left to post, if I think the horse is an overlay, I jump in and place my bet. However, I only do this after I have carefully classified the race using all the factors and information available to me.